Above average rain and El Niño on the horizon
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The Highland Lakes area has seen an exceptional amount of rainfall this April, and the National Weather Service is predicting a climate shift that could mean more rain throughout the coming summer and beyond.
Rainfall
Some numbers of note from the Lower Colorado River Authority Hydromet rain gauges and the National Water Prediction Service:
- 3.38- 10.7 inches of rainfall across Burnet and Llano counties April 1-22, 2026
- 1-4 inches of rainfall across Burnet and Llano counties in April 2025
- 7-14.8 inches of rainfall across Burnet and Llano counties so far in 2026
- Marble Falls has received 7.5-9.32 inches of rain in 2026
- Burnet has received about 10.7 inches of rain in 2026
- Llano has received about 7.2 inches of rain in 2026
This year, some parts of Burnet County received 10-30 percent of the county’s average annual rainfall in April alone. The Highland Lakes area gets about 32 inches of rain per year on average according to Extreme Weather Watch, which uses data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to find its totals.
Lake levels
According to the LCRA current river report, Lake Buchanan is well above its historical April average, but Lake Travis is still lagging.
- Lake Buchanan is considered full at 1,020 feet above mean sea level. As of April 22, it is at 1,018.58 ft msl, about 7 feet over its historical April average of 1,011.52 ft msl.
- Lake Travis is considered full at 681 ft msl. As of April 22, it is at 663.5 ft msl, about 4.73 feet down from its historical April average of 668.23 ft msl.
As of April 22, the lakes’ combined storage was 84 percent.
Soil moisture
Burnet and Llano counties are fairly wet according to the Keetch Byram Drought Index, which is a Texas standard used to determine drought conditions and potential for wildfires.
The 0-800 scale, with zero being the wettest and 800 being the driest, is based on soil moisture levels and precipitation.
As of April 22:
- Burnet County is rated between three and 185 on the KBDI depending on the exact location, with an average overall rating of 29
- Llano County is rated between three and 256 on the KBDI depending on the exact location, with an average overall rating of 106
Both counties fall within the lowest range of the scale, 0-200, which is described as: “Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of early spring following winter precipitation.”
Groundwater
Despite the recent rainfall, the Central Texas Groundwater Conservation District has maintained its Stage 3 drought rating as of April 22.
The CTGCD made the move from a Stage 2 drought rating to Stage 3 on March 18.
Under Stage 3 conditions, groundwater users in Burnet County are asked to voluntarily reduce their usage by 20 percent.
Climate predictions
According to an April 9 update from the National Weather Service Prediction Center, El Niño conditions are likely to emerge between May and July and persist through the remainder of 2026. Currently, the climate is in an ENSO-neutral state, which is a middle ground between El Niño and La Niña conditions.
El Niño, ENSO-neutral, and La Niña are all different states of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which is a climate pattern with global impacts based upon the surface temperature of the northern Pacific Ocean.
For Central Texas, El Niño typically means cooler, wetter weather, and La Niña means warmer, drier weather.
The climate patterns are not guarantees of changes in weather, but in recent history, Central Texas saw the full impacts of a three-year La Niña and accompanying drought conditions that lasted 2021-23. The historic flooding of the Llano and Colorado rivers in October 2018 occurred during a particularly intense El Niño that lasted from 2018-19.