Believe it or not, it’s not as hot (for now)
The Highland Lakes will welcome the first day of summer on Thursday, June 20, with highs in the 80s and rain. The lead-up to the 2024 hot season has been wet and relatively mild compared to this time last year, when the area was in the throes of a brutal heatwave.
The current National Weather Service forecast calls for a high of 92 degrees on Tuesday, 81 degrees on Wednesday, and 86 degrees on Thursday. Rain is predicted for Wednesday and Thursday across the Highland Lakes.
Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose attributes the precipitation to a low-pressure system working its way up from the Gulf of Mexico, which could develop into a tropical depression. Even if it doesn’t, moisture is expected.
“Regardless of whether this system develops into a tropical depression or not, the circulation around the area of low pressure is expected to pull a large area of deep, tropical moisture inland to South, Central Texas, and the Hill Country beginning Tuesday, continuing through late Thursday,” he wrote in an LCRA report.
Burnet and Llano counties could get up to 5 inches of rain in some spots between Tuesday and Thursday.
The frequent and often dramatic spring showers across Central Texas in 2024 have rejuvenated Lake Buchanan and kept the Llano and Colorado rivers flowing. Lake Buchanan has risen 15 feet since April, and the LCRA was able to reduce its drought stage from 2 to 1 when the combined storage of Travis and Buchanan, both reservoirs, hit 55 percent on June 3.
Temperatures have been somewhat mild throughout late spring compared to recent years, especially 2023. Highs have stayed in the low 90s and the 80s in May and June, with the exception of a few scorching days, like over the Memorial Day weekend when temperatures hit triple digits.
SUMMER 2023
The Highland Lakes was exceptionally hot and dry by late June 2023. Temperatures hit 107 degrees on June 20 in the midst of last summer’s first brutal heatwave, which had four straight days of highs over 100 degrees.
Scorching temperatures continued throughout June and July, leading up to the first major wildfire of 2023, the Moore Peak Fire, on July 13. That blaze took days to subdue and was largely fueled by the extreme conditions that preceded it.
The Moore Peak Fire was followed by dozens of smaller fires and a staggering streak of 51 consecutive days of 100-plus-degree highs from July 8 to Aug. 27.
The Llano and Colorado rivers had ceased to flow by August 2023, and Lake Buchanan dropped to an eight-year low by the end of the summer.
SUMMER 2024
Local officials are still preparing for a dry, wildfire-filled summer this year.
“After seeing the climate update from the National Weather Service from spring moving into summer, it’s not pretty,” said Burnet County Emergency Management Coordinator Derek Marchio in a March interview with DailyTrib.com. “I don’t think anybody here is expecting a ‘nice’ fire season.”
An El Niño climate pattern officially ended in May, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. El Niño typically means wet weather in the winter for Central Texas and milder weather in the spring, summer, and fall.
El Niño’s departure signals a possible return to hotter, drier weather. The Highland Lakes area is currently in what is known as ENSO-neutral conditions, the middle ground between El Niño and its fiery cousin, La Niña. La Niña typically brings hotter, drier weather to Central Texas. Current NOAA predictions show the likelihood of La Niña developing at 65 percent between July and September and 85 percent between November and January.
Despite any impacts that La Niña and El Niño might have, summer is summer in Texas and it is inevitable it will get unbearably hot at some point.