Mild, dry late fall to give way to wet, cold winter as El Nino settles in
The Highland Lakes region has been experiencing beautiful, mild weather into late fall since the heavy storms and flooding in October. However, rain and colder temperatures are expected to roll in on Thursday, Dec. 14, possibly signaling the start of El Niño and a wet winter.
Temperatures in Burnet and Llano counties have capped out in the mid-70s and rarely dipped below 40 degrees in November, making for a pleasant autumn. The lack of precipitation is a reminder that the area is still in a severe drought.
Over 8 inches of rain in late October brought an end to one of the most scorching summers on record for Central Texas. Despite receiving months of rainfall over just a handful days, the two reservoirs in the Highland Lakes only rose a few feet. Those gains have even started to reverse due to a lack of rain in November and early December. Lakes Buchanan and Travis are on track to drop below their previous 30-day levels, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority Hydromet. Llano and Burnet counties have seen less than an inch and a half of rain on average over the past four weeks.
The Highland Lakes water situation seems bleak, but winter is coming, and that could be a good thing.
“In a typical El Niño winter, you can say we are favored to see a more active jet stream, which brings more weather and chances for precipitation,” National Weather Service meteorologist Brandon Gale told DailyTrib.com. “A lot of the reason we are in a drought right now and haven’t seen rainfall in the past three years is because of La Niña.”
El Niño and La Niña are different aspects of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is caused by rising and falling temperatures of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These temperature fluctuations have global impacts on weather.
In Central Texas, El Niño typically means cooler, wetter weather in the winter, while La Niña brings drier warmer, weather. Increased precipitation during El Niño is not 100 percent guaranteed, according to Gale, but that is what is usually seen during El Niño winters.
“For the winter as a whole, we are slightly favored to see those above-average precipitation changes (from El Niño),” he said. “The good news is that we’re not favored below (average precipitation). Hopefully, we can see a wet spring as well.”
El Niño’s heaviest impacts are felt in the winter, Dec. 21-March 19, but the weather pattern is currently predicted to continue through the spring, which could also mean at least average or above-average rainfall for that season.